Niño 3.4 · Equatorial Pacific · 5°N–5°S, 120°–170°W
SUPER EL NIÑO
TRACKER
NOAA El Niño Advisory · In Effect
Latest weekly Niño 3.4 SST anomaly
of the way to Super El Niño status
0°0.5° EL NIÑO1.0°1.5°2.0° SUPER
NOAA outlookOdds of crossing 2.0°C
NOAA's official probability of a very strong El Niño (≥ +2.0°C) this fall and winter
1950–present2026 vs. every Super El Niño on record
ContextWhat crossing 2.0°C has meant before